Little-Big lens: clarifying complex issues through scale
For years I have been fascinated in mental models, with my curiosity extending to the models discussed by the likes of Charlie Munger, Shane Parrish and Warren Buffet. When facing complex societal decisions like who to vote for or what position to take on global issues, having a clear mental framework can transform overwhelming choices into manageable conclusions.
It’s election week in Australia, a time to make decisions on complex policy and I’d like to add my own model into the mix. While not quite as elegantly named as Munger’s ‘Circle of Competence’ or Buffet’s ‘Margin of Safety’, the Little-Big lens is a way of thinking about ideas by scaling them to their simplest form before extrapolating back to real-world dimensions.
How the Little-Big mental model works
Applying a Little-Big lens involves two key steps:
Scale down: reduce a complex issue to a miniature version where outcomes become transparent
Scale up: carefully extrapolate those insights back to their actual size and complexity
This approach helps me cut through noise, identify core principles, and reach clearer conclusions on nuanced questions.
The Little-Big mental model in action: climate change
Consider climate change – a topic that has divided nations, with some countries implementing ambitious carbon reduction targets while others have withdrawn from international agreements. How might an average citizen determine their position?
Using the Little-Big lens mental model, imagine living in a sealed biosphere with just 20 people, roughly the size of a small neighbourhood of a few blocks. What happens if this community relies entirely on fossil fuels with no consideration for air quality, water purity, or pollution control? The consequences would rapidly become obvious - compromised breathing air, contaminated water, and a significantly diminished quality of life for all inhabitants.
Now scale this insight up: Earth's population is approximately 8 billion people - effectively 400 million such communities of 20 people. The cumulative impact becomes easier to conceptualise when viewed through this lens. While Earth lacks a literal glass ceiling, and many additional factors influence climate systems, this mental scaling exercise can help clarify the fundamental principles at stake.
Technological health impacts
Consider another contemporary question: do wireless and Bluetooth transmissions impact human health?
Using the Little-Big lens mental model again, contrast two time periods:
50 years ago: virtually zero wireless electromagnetic signals in the average home
Today: the typical household might contain 15+ devices constantly transmitting signals
An apartment building might host 500+ units with 3,000+ active wireless connections
All this occurs under the expanding network of telecommunications satellites
While definitive scientific consensus may still be developing, the Little-Big lens mental model doesn't provide the answer but helps frame the question in a way that highlights the dramatic change in our electromagnetic environment over a single generation.
Application to election policies
As election day approaches in Australia, this same framework can be helpful to evaluate campaign promises:
Scale down: would this policy meaningfully improve life in a community of just 20 people?
Scale up: when expanded to 26 million Australians, does the impact remain positive and practical?
Sometimes ‘zooming in’ allows us to see the essence of an issue, while ‘zooming out’ reveals its broader implications. Together, these perspectives often provide clarity that might otherwise be obscured by political rhetoric or complexity.
The Little-Big mental model doesn't replace critical thinking or factual analysis – rather, it complements them by providing a structured approach to complex societal questions where outcomes might otherwise be difficult to envision.